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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Persian Gulf Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Esteghlal v Shams Azar

Esteghlal
12:45
Shams Azar
Where to watch

· Azadi Stadium, Tehran

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Azadi Stadium, Tehran
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelModel forecast

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 26 Oct, 00:00 UK time

Your pick

Locks UK time

Esteghlal
Draw
Shams Azar

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Your pick counts towards the community picks only; it is never blended with the statistical model or the founder’s analysis.

ModelForecast details

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.40 – 0.54⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–0⁩ 18.0%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 16.5%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 14.1%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.0%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 7.6%

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 26 Oct, 00:00 UK time, 47 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 25 Oct on 697 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Not supplied in this competition

  • Statistics · Not supplied in this competition
  • Player statistics · Not supplied in this competition
  • Expected goals by player · Not supplied in this competition

We do not receive these for this competition, so they will not appear after kick-off either.

After kick-off you'll see

Recorded once the match kicks off; nothing is shown before then.

data delayed

  • Line-ups · data delayed

Data for this module is delayed.

Not announced yet: clubs usually name the official line-up about an hour before kick-off, and it is shown here as soon as it reaches us.

After kick-off you'll see

Recorded once the match kicks off; nothing is shown before then.

Coming, with limited coverage

  • Live timeline · Coming, with limited coverage

Limited: our source supplies only part of this in this competition, so some of it can be missing for this match.

data delayed

  • Line-ups · data delayed

Data for this module is delayed.

Not supplied in this competition

  • Statistics · Not supplied in this competition
  • Player statistics · Not supplied in this competition
  • Expected goals by player · Not supplied in this competition

We do not receive these for this competition, so they will not appear after kick-off either.

Not announced yet: clubs usually name the official line-up about an hour before kick-off, and it is shown here as soon as it reaches us.

Key players

Esteghlalnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Shams Azarnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Persian Gulf Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Esteghlal the most probability, 24.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Esteghlal · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Esteghlal · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Esteghlal · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Esteghlal -0.2, draw 0.0, Shams Azar +0.2 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (22 Oct 2026 → 23 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (695 → 696), history from (18 Oct 2023 → 19 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Esteghlal +1.5, draw -0.7, Shams Azar -0.8 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (23 Oct 2026 → 25 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (696 → 697), history from (19 Oct 2023 → 21 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Esteghlal81.5
Shams Azar34.6
Esteghlal — 81.575% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 63% of this competition

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Shams Azar — 34.675% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 23% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 50% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition — 5 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 26 Oct, 00:00 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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