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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Süper Lig· 2026/27 · Matchweek 8

Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş

TrabzonsporO. Tufan 21′ · M. Salah 71′
2–0FT · HT 1–0
Beşiktaş
Where to watch

· Papara Park, Trabzon

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: C. Aydin
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Papara Park, Trabzon
  • Referee: C. Aydin
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Trabzonspor⁩ win. The model gave it 46.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.182 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.64 – 1.21⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.41 – 1.32⁩
Goals
⁦2 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.3%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 8.6%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 7.7%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 7.0%

⁦2–0⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 19 Oct, 17:35 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 18 Oct on 1,003 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

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The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
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Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 18:00Kick-off
  2. 21′Goal · TrabzonsporO. Tufan
  3. 32′Yellow card · BeşiktaşF. Miretti
  4. 33′Yellow card · TrabzonsporFabinho
  5. 60′Yellow card · BeşiktaşE. Topçu
  6. 71′Goal · TrabzonsporM. Salah · (assist Franculino)
  7. 85′Yellow card · BeşiktaşI. Fakili
  8. 90′Yellow card · BeşiktaşK. Ouattara
Substitutions (9)
  1. 63′Substitution · TrabzonsporT. Jabol-Folcarelli on · O. Tufan off
  2. 77′Substitution · BeşiktaşK. Ouattara on · F. Miretti off
  3. 77′Substitution · BeşiktaşO. Hyeon-Gyu on · V. Černý off
  4. 77′Substitution · BeşiktaşI. Fakili on · R. Yilmaz off
  5. 81′Substitution · TrabzonsporN. Saviolo on · A. Şimşir off
  6. 85′Substitution · BeşiktaşW. Ndidi on · J. Olaitan off
  7. 88′Substitution · TrabzonsporU. Nayir on · Franculino off
  8. 89′Substitution · TrabzonsporC. Özkacar on · E. Muçi off
  9. 90′Substitution · BeşiktaşK. Kayra Yilmaz on · S. Özcan off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 38%Possession62%
  • 2.41Expected goals (xG)1.32

Attack

  • 13Shots19
  • 8Shots on target7
  • 3Shots off target9
  • 2Blocked shots3
  • 4Corners6
  • 2Offsides5
  • 7Saves6

Passing

  • 287Passes472
  • 219Accurate passes410
  • 76%Pass accuracy87%

Discipline

  • 11Fouls17
  • 1Yellow cards4

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Trabzonspor
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Onana908.900––0
C. Nwaiwu907.900––0
Fabinho906.500––1
M. Salah907.910421
S. Lopes Cabral907.3001–1
S. Savić907.500––1
W. Pina907.300––2
E. Muçi896.600231
Franculino887.301112
A. Şimşir817.700141
O. Tufan637.5101–0
T. Jabol-Folcarelli276.300––0
N. Saviolo96.6001–0
U. Nayir2–00––0
C. Özkacar1–00––0
Beşiktaş
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Nübel907.200––0
D. Vlahović906.3001–0
E. Topçu907.300––2
E. Agbadou907.3001–4
L. Trossard907.200230
M. Murillo906.200211
S. Özcan897.300–47
J. Olaitan856.300330
F. Miretti776.700221
R. Yilmaz776.900–12
V. Černý776.700231
I. Fakili136.6002–0
K. Ouattara136.700––1
O. Hyeon-Gyu136.3001–0
W. Ndidi96.700––0
K. Kayra Yilmaz1–00––0

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playernot supplied

Per-player xG: not supplied for this match. The team figure in the statistics above is supplied; the player breakdown is not.

Line-ups available

Beşiktaş4-1-4-1

  1. 1Nübel7.2
  1. 62Murillo6.2
  2. 12Agbadou7.3
  3. 53TopçuBooked 60′7.3
  4. 33Yilmaz (c)Off 77′6.9
  1. 6ÖzcanOff 90′7.3
  1. 18ČernýOff 77′6.7
  2. 15OlaitanOff 85′6.3
  3. 21MirettiBooked 32′ · Off 77′6.7
  4. 19Trossard7.2
  1. 28Vlahović6.3
  1. 9FranculinoOff 88′7.3
  1. 58ŞimşirOff 81′7.7
  2. 7MuçiOff 89′6.6
  3. 10SalahGoal 71′7.9
  1. 6FabinhoBooked 33′6.5
  2. 11TufanGoal 21′ · Off 63′7.5
  1. 55Lopes Cabral7.3
  2. 15Savić (c)7.5
  3. 27Nwaiwu7.9
  4. 20Pina7.3
  1. 24Onana8.9

Trabzonspor4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Trabzonspor · Bench

Coach: T. Reis

Beşiktaş · Bench

Coach: V. Italiano

Key players

Trabzonsporavailable

  1. A. Onana · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. S. Savić · Defender629 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. C. Nwaiwu · Defender623 min in 7 matches · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Beşiktaşavailable

  1. A. Nübel · Goalkeeper630 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. O. Kokcu · Midfielder585 min in 7 matches · 2 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. E. Agbadou · Defender548 min in 7 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 7 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Süper Lig 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Trabzonspor the most probability, 18.8 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Trabzonspor · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours neither side · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours neither side · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (11 Oct 2026 → 18 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,007 → 1,003), history from (7 Oct 2023 → 14 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 2–0: Trabzonspor. Version 2 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 46.4%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.769, Brier 0.432 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Trabzonspor83.2
Beşiktaş76.2
Trabzonspor — 83.295% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 81% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 44% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Beşiktaş — 76.295% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 79% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 88% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 79% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 34% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 19 Oct, 17:35 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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