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Scottish Premiership· 2026/27 · Matchweek 9

Hibernian v Falkirk

HibernianO. Elding 41′
1–2FT · HT 1–2
FalkirkJ. Murrell 13′, 37′
Where to watch

· Easter Road, Edinburgh

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: N. Walsh
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Easter Road, Edinburgh
  • Referee: N. Walsh
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Falkirk⁩ win. The model gave it 22.1%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.449 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.77 – 1.05⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.35 – 0.76⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.3%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.4%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 9.4%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 6.2%

⁦1–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 12 Oct, 15:05 UK time, 4 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 11 Oct on 681 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 6′Yellow card · HibernianO. Elding
  3. 13′Goal · FalkirkJ. Murrell · (assist R. Strain)
  4. 25′Yellow card · FalkirkB. Krauhaus
  5. 37′Goal · FalkirkJ. Murrell · (assist E. Ross)
  6. 41′Goal · HibernianO. Elding · (assist F. Passlack)
  7. 46′Substitution · FalkirkL. McCann on · S. Tanser off
  8. 54′VAR · Hibernian · Penalty cancelledT. Klidje
  9. 61′Yellow card · FalkirkR. Strain
  10. 61′Substitution · HibernianJ. McGrath on · A. Abdulai off
  11. 61′Substitution · HibernianR. Matondo on · T. Klidje off
  12. 65′Substitution · FalkirkD. Melniks on · B. Krauhaus off
  13. 76′Substitution · HibernianN. Cadden on · M. Chaiwa off
  14. 76′Substitution · HibernianA. Šuto on · A. Mayor off
  15. 77′Substitution · FalkirkC. Fodrey on · E. Ross off
  16. 79′Yellow card · FalkirkF. Barbrook
  17. 84′Substitution · FalkirkF. Yeats on · F. Barbrook off
  18. 85′Substitution · FalkirkJ. McMillan on · O. Eames off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 6Blocked shots2
  • 6Corners3
  • 1.35Expected goals (xG)0.76
  • 5Fouls20
  • 0Offsides2
  • 80%Pass accuracy65%
  • 587Passes249
  • 471Accurate passes163
  • 70%Possession30%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Saves2
  • 17Shots10
  • 8Shots off target3
  • 3Shots on target5
  • 1Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Hibernian
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
F. Passlack907.501321
J. Kerr906.900001
J. Mulligan906.500103
M. Ivezić906.200000
M. Boyle906.700202
O. Elding907.210212
R. Sallinger906.300001
A. Mayor766.900112
M. Chaiwa766.700000
A. Abdulai616.200210
T. Klidje606.200211
R. Matondo306.600021
J. McGrath296.500200
A. Šuto146.700010
N. Cadden146.600000
Falkirk
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Spencer907.200003
J. Murrell908.620501
L. Neilson906.900001
L. Henderson907.200000
R. Strain906.701122
S. Bain906.900001
F. Barbrook846.500111
O. Eames846.900102
E. Ross777.001024
B. Krauhaus656.6001–1
L. McCann456.700001
S. Tanser456.200010
D. Melniks256.900000
C. Fodrey136.700011
F. Yeats106.900010
J. McMillan106.600000

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Falkirk4-2-3-1

  1. 19S. Bain6.9
  1. 22R. Strain6.7
  2. 15L. Neilson6.9
  3. 5L. Henderson7.2
  4. 17S. Tanser6.2
  1. 8B. Spencer (c)7.2
  2. 16F. Barbrook6.5
  1. 23E. Ross7.0
  2. 28B. Krauhaus6.6
  3. 42O. Eames6.9
  1. 24J. Murrell8.6
  1. 7O. Elding7.2
  1. 18T. Klidje6.2
  2. 47A. Abdulai6.2
  3. 10M. Boyle6.7
  1. 14M. Chaiwa6.7
  2. 8J. Mulligan6.5
  1. 3A. Mayor6.9
  2. 5M. Ivezić6.2
  3. 6J. Kerr6.9
  4. 25F. Passlack (c)7.5
  1. 1R. Sallinger6.3

Hibernian4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Hibernian · Bench

Coach: Marink Reedijk

Falkirk · Bench

Coach: John McGlynn

Key players

Hibernianavailable

  1. J. Kerr · Defender720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. R. Sallinger · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. J. Mulligan · Midfielder705 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Falkirkavailable

  1. S. Bain · Goalkeeper720 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. R. Strain · Defender719 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 2 assists
  3. L. Henderson · Defender687 min in 8 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 8 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Scottish Premiership 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Hibernian the most probability, 30.1 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Hibernian · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Hibernian · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Hibernian · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (9 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), history from (5 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Hibernian -0.1, draw +0.1, Falkirk 0.0 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (684 → 681), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–2: Falkirk. Version 3 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 22.1%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.508, Brier 0.955 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Hibernian56.0
Falkirk60.2
Hibernian — 56.095% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, underlying team strength and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 68% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 43% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 59% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Falkirk — 60.295% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, rest, travel and schedule and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 45% of this competition — expected: the last starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 73% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 12 Oct, 15:05 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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