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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 14

Blackburn v Stoke City

Blackburn
1–2FT · HT 0–1
Stoke City
Where to watch

· Ewood Park, Blackburn

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Andrew Kitchen
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Ewood Park, Blackburn
  • Referee: Andrew Kitchen
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Stoke City⁩ win. The model gave it 27.6%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.363 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.41 – 1.05⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.90 – 1.29⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.1%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 11.6%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 8.9%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 8.9%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 8.5%

⁦1–2⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 03 Nov, 19:20 UK time, 24 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 2 Nov on 1,634 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:45Kick-off
  2. 30′Yellow card · Stoke CityD. Soumaré
  3. 33′Yellow card · BlackburnH. Carter
  4. 41′Substitution · BlackburnG. Beyuku on · R. Alebiosu off
  5. 43′Goal · Stoke CityJ. McGlynn
  6. 45′Substitution · Stoke CityJ. Tchamadeu on · L. Bombino off
  7. 58′Substitution · Stoke CityS. Ingelsson on · D. Soumaré off
  8. 62′Yellow card · Stoke CityR. Boženík
  9. 67′Substitution · BlackburnM. Baradji on · K. Montgomery off
  10. 67′Substitution · BlackburnA. Kargbo on · J. Fevrier off
  11. 67′Substitution · BlackburnY. Ribeiro on · H. Pickering off
  12. 68′Own goal · Stoke CityM. Baradji
  13. 74′Yellow card · Stoke CityV. Johansson
  14. 78′Substitution · BlackburnY. Ohashi on · O. Afolayan off
  15. 81′Yellow card · BlackburnA. Kargbo
  16. 82′Substitution · Stoke CityT. Rigo on · M. Manhoef off
  17. 82′Substitution · Stoke CityG. Hirst on · R. Boženík off
  18. 85′Substitution · Stoke CityJ. Bae on · J. Devenny off
  19. 87′Goal · BlackburnA. Guðjohnsen
  20. 90′Yellow card · BlackburnA. Guðjohnsen
  21. 90+2′Yellow card · Stoke CityJ. Tchamadeu

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 3Blocked shots2
  • 6Corners5
  • 1.90Expected goals (xG)1.29
  • 12Fouls19
  • 0Offsides1
  • 475Passes347
  • 392Accurate passes269
  • 58%Possession42%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Saves2
  • 14Shots11
  • 8Shots off target6
  • 3Shots on target3
  • 3Yellow cards4

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Blackburn
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Guðjohnsen907.410110
B. Tóth906.300000
H. Carter906.400204
S. Morsy906.900117
S. McLoughlin906.700102
T. Cantwell907.000144
O. Afolayan786.500402
H. Pickering675.600000
J. Fevrier676.300213
K. Montgomery676.400012
G. Beyuku496.200203
R. Alebiosu416.000000
A. Kargbo235.900000
M. Baradji235.900012
Y. Ribeiro236.200000
Y. Ohashi126.100000
Stoke City
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Johnson906.300100
B. Wilmot906.600003
J. McGlynn908.210123
L. Graham906.700114
M. Talovierov906.800000
V. Johansson906.400000
J. Devenny855.800113
M. Manhoef826.400220
R. Boženík826.100410
D. Soumaré585.900101
J. Tchamadeu455.900002
L. Bombino455.900012
S. Ingelsson326.200001
G. Hirst86.500000
T. Rigo86.000001
J. Bae56.200000

xG (Highlightly) available

Blackburn
PlayerxGxAxGOT
A. Guðjohnsen0.740.070.98
S. McLoughlin0.480.22–
O. Afolayan0.290.07–
J. Fevrier0.150.07–
H. Carter0.050.01–
T. Cantwell0.050.360.14
G. Beyuku0.040.22–
S. Morsy0.030.080.05
A. Kargbo–0.01–
B. Tóth–0.00–
H. Pickering–0.03–
K. Montgomery–0.01–
M. Baradji–0.01–
R. Alebiosu–0.00–
Y. Ohashi–0.00–
Y. Ribeiro–0.01–
Stoke City
PlayerxGxAxGOT
R. Boženík0.390.010.40
L. Graham0.190.01–
M. Manhoef0.130.070.17
B. Johnson0.080.09–
J. Devenny0.070.01–
D. Soumaré0.040.02–
J. McGlynn0.040.110.08
B. Wilmot–0.01–
G. Hirst–0.00–
J. Tchamadeu–0.00–
L. Bombino–0.01–
M. Talovierov–0.01–
S. Ingelsson–0.00–
T. Rigo–0.00–
V. Johansson–0.01–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Stoke City3-4-3

  1. 1V. Johansson6.4
  1. 16B. Wilmot6.6
  2. 40M. Talovierov6.8
  3. 5L. Graham6.7
  1. 2B. Johnson6.3
  2. 7J. McGlynn8.2
  3. 27D. Soumaré5.9
  4. 21L. Bombino5.9
  1. 42M. Manhoef6.4
  2. 9R. Boženík6.1
  3. 13J. Devenny5.8
  1. 9A. Guðjohnsen7.4
  1. 21O. Afolayan6.5
  2. 10T. Cantwell7.0
  3. 11J. Fevrier6.3
  1. 31K. Montgomery6.4
  2. 8S. Morsy6.9
  1. 3H. Pickering5.6
  2. 15S. McLoughlin6.7
  3. 17H. Carter6.4
  4. 2R. Alebiosu6.0
  1. 22B. Tóth6.3

Blackburn4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Blackburn · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Stoke City · Bench

Coach: Mark Robins

Key players

Blackburnavailable

  1. S. McLoughlin · Defender1,170 min in 13 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. R. Alebiosu · Defender1,124 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. T. Cantwell · Midfielder1,032 min in 13 matches · 2 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 13 matches played.

Stoke Cityavailable

  1. E. Galbraith · Midfielder1,170 min in 13 matches · 3 goals · 4 assistsOut · Yellow Cards
  2. V. Johansson · Goalkeeper1,170 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. B. Wilmot · Defender1,125 min in 13 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 13 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Blackburn the most probability, 17.2 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Home advantage · favours Blackburn · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • Team strength · favours Blackburn · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Blackburn · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (26 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,645 → 1,633), history from (22 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Blackburn +3.4, draw +1.0, Stoke City -4.4 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 2 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (1,633 → 1,634), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 29 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–2: Stoke City. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 27.6%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.287, Brier 0.801 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Blackburn55.3
Stoke City41.8
Blackburn — 55.395% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, underlying team strength and rest, travel and schedule.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 52% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 53% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Stoke City — 41.895% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 72% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 25% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 77% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 03 Nov, 19:20 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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