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Picked from 10 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Conference League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 2

Thun v Hajduk Split

Thun
0–1FT · HT 0–1
Hajduk SplitD. de Almeida 17′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: J. Gillett
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: J. Gillett
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Hajduk Split⁩ win. The model gave it 41.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.225 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.43 – 1.62⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.29 – 1.30⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.4%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.9%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 7.8%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 7.3%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 6.4%

⁦0–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 22 Oct, 19:45 UK time, 14 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 21 Oct on 19,965 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

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No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 17′Goal · Hajduk SplitD. de Almeida
  3. 47′Yellow card · Hajduk SplitA. del Moral
  4. 57′Yellow card · ThunJ. Roth
  5. 65′Yellow card · Hajduk SplitD. Marešić
  6. 68′Penalty missed · Hajduk SplitM. Šego
  7. 73′Yellow card · ThunN. Reichmuth
Substitutions (10)
  1. 70′Substitution · ThunN. Zoukit on · N. Maier off
  2. 70′Substitution · ThunN. Christoffersson on · F. Dursun off
  3. 71′Substitution · Hajduk SplitD. Melnjak on · M. Šotiček off
  4. 78′Substitution · ThunD. Derbaci on · J. Roth off
  5. 78′Substitution · ThunR. Braschi on · B. Labeau off
  6. 78′Substitution · Hajduk SplitL. Dendoncker on · A. del Moral off
  7. 78′Substitution · Hajduk SplitM. Livaja on · M. Šego off
  8. 83′Substitution · ThunS. Lengen on · N. Reichmuth off
  9. 85′Substitution · Hajduk SplitA. Van Hoorenbeeck on · K. Fayad off
  10. 85′Substitution · Hajduk SplitC. Martín on · A. Sanyang off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statisticslimited

Match

  • 54%Possession46%
  • 1.29Expected goals (xG)1.30

Attack

  • 12Shots11
  • 4Shots on target4
  • 5Shots off target6
  • 3Blocked shots1
  • 2Corners3
  • 3Offsides3
  • 3Saves4

Passing

  • 403Passes351
  • 277Accurate passes245
  • 69%Pass accuracy70%

Discipline

  • 23Fouls16
  • 2Yellow cards2

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Thun
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
F. Fehr906.9–01–6
J. Bamert907.0–0–––
M. Bürki907.2–0––3
M. Käit906.3–0–11
N. Steffen906.9–0–––
O. Mambwa906.3–01–1
N. Reichmuth837.0–0136
B. Labeau786.3–022–
J. Roth786.9–0–3–
F. Dursun706.5–01–2
N. Maier706.7–0––3
N. Zoukit206.2–0––1
N. Christoffersson205.9–01––
D. Derbaci126.7–01––
R. Braschi126.7–01––
S. Lengen126.3–0–––
Hajduk Split
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. de Almeida907.31031–
D. Marešić906.9–0––4
D. Hadžikadunić907.9–0–12
M. Acapandié907.3–0–13
Š. Hrgović906.9–0112
T. Silić908.7–0–––
A. Sanyang857.3–0––2
K. Fayad857.5–02–5
A. del Moral787.3–0––1
M. Šego786.6–02––
M. Šotiček716.6–01–2
D. Melnjak196.9–0––1
L. Dendoncker126.9–0–1–
M. Livaja126.3–01––
A. Van Hoorenbeeck106.6–0–––
C. Martín106.3–0–––

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by playerlimited

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Thun
PlayerxGxAxGOT
N. Christoffersson0.500.00–
F. Dursun0.230.08–
B. Labeau0.180.470.03
N. Reichmuth0.130.260.26
F. Fehr0.120.08–
D. Derbaci0.07–0.27
R. Braschi0.070.000.30
O. Mambwa0.010.04–
J. Bamert–0.01–
J. Roth–0.18–
M. Bürki–0.12–
M. Käit–0.02–
N. Zoukit–0.00–
N. Maier–0.01–
N. Steffen–0.00–
S. Lengen–0.00–
Hajduk Split
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Šego0.810.001.00
D. de Almeida0.270.020.45
M. Livaja0.100.00–
Š. Hrgović0.060.18–
K. Fayad0.040.020.02
M. Šotiček0.020.03–
A. Sanyang–0.00–
A. del Moral–0.02–
A. Van Hoorenbeeck–0.00–
D. Marešić–0.01–
D. Melnjak–0.00–
D. Hadžikadunić–0.01–
L. Dendoncker–0.00–
M. Acapandié–0.01–
T. Silić–0.01–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Not shown: 1 players the source listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Hajduk Split4-2-3-1

  1. 33Silić8.7
  1. 22Acapandié7.3
  2. 6Hadžikadunić7.9
  3. 15MarešićBooked 65′6.9
  4. 32Hrgović6.9
  1. 8FayadOff 85′7.5
  2. 20del MoralBooked 47′ · Off 78′7.3
  1. 7SanyangOff 85′7.3
  2. 9de AlmeidaGoal 17′7.3
  3. 23ŠotičekOff 71′6.6
  1. 11Šego (c)Off 78′6.6
  1. 9DursunOff 70′6.5
  2. 96LabeauOff 78′6.3
  1. 30MaierOff 70′6.7
  2. 14Käit6.3
  3. 16RothBooked 57′ · Off 78′6.9
  4. 70ReichmuthBooked 73′ · Off 83′7.0
  1. 2Mambwa6.3
  2. 19Bamert7.0
  3. 23Bürki (c)7.2
  4. 47Fehr6.9
  1. 1Steffen6.9

Thun4-4-2

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Thun · Bench

Coach: Luca Privitelli Gian

Hajduk Split · Bench

Coach: Gonzalo Garcia

Key players

Thunavailable

  1. F. Fehr · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. J. Roth · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. M. Käit · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 1 match played.

Hajduk Splitlimited

  1. T. Silić · Goalkeeper210 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. Š. Hrgović · Defender201 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. D. Marešić · Defender186 min in 2 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for 2 of 5 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Conference League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Hajduk Split the most probability, 8.5 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Hajduk Split · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Hajduk Split · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Thun · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Thun -2.2, draw +0.9, Hajduk Split +1.3 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (14 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,577 → 15,614), history from (10 Oct 2023 → 11 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Thun +0.4, draw -0.2, Hajduk Split -0.2 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (15 Oct 2026 → 21 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,614 → 19,965), history from (11 Oct 2023 → 17 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Hajduk Split. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 41.9%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.870, Brier 0.510 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

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Match discussion

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Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.