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Picked from 31 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Belgian Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Standard Liège v Beveren

Standard LiègeD. Eckert Ayensa 5′, 64′, 67′
3–0FT · HT 1–0
Beveren
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: M. Ledda
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: M. Ledda
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Standard Liège⁩ win. The model gave it 55.2%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.123 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.87 – 1.09⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.38 – 0.59⁩
Goals
⁦3 – 0⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.0%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 9.3%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 9.0%
  • ⁦3–1⁩ 6.2%

⁦3–0⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 06 Nov, 19:25 UK time, 19 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 5 Nov on 919 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 19:45Kick-off
  2. 5′Goal · Standard LiègeD. Eckert Ayensa · (assist A. Abid)
  3. 35′Yellow card · BeverenC. Janssens
  4. 38′Yellow card · BeverenB. Godeau
  5. 46′Substitution · BeverenY. Gomis on · L. Jans off
  6. 46′Substitution · BeverenF. Slegers on · C. Oumar Condé off
  7. 63′Substitution · BeverenS. Keller on · B. Godeau off
  8. 64′Penalty · Standard LiègeD. Eckert Ayensa
  9. 67′Goal · Standard LiègeD. Eckert Ayensa · (assist A. Abid)
  10. 77′Substitution · Standard LiègeM. Ilaimaharitra on · A. Trouillet off
  11. 77′Substitution · Standard LiègeB. Nsimba on · D. Eckert Ayensa off
  12. 85′Substitution · BeverenJ. Thomas Robatsch on · V. Boone off
  13. 85′Substitution · BeverenC. Brüls on · E. Kaboré off
  14. 87′Yellow card · BeverenS. Keller
  15. 88′Substitution · Standard LiègeR. M. Alberto J. on · R. Touzghar off
  16. 88′Substitution · Standard LiègeS. Jasper on · A. Abid off
  17. 90′Substitution · Standard LiègeD. Dierckx on · I. Hautekiet off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 6Blocked shots3
  • 3Corners5
  • 2.38Expected goals (xG)0.59
  • 5Fouls17
  • 3Offsides2
  • 86%Pass accuracy79%
  • 627Passes375
  • 537Accurate passes296
  • 62%Possession38%
  • 3Saves2
  • 16Shots9
  • 5Shots off target3
  • 5Shots on target3
  • 0Yellow cards3

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Standard Liège
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
G. Mortensen906.900––0
H. Lawrence907.300––0
I. Karamoko907.3001–1
M. Epolo907.700––0
R. Fosso907.3001–1
S. Drammeh908.300132
I. Hautekiet897.500––2
A. Abid888.302152
R. Touzghar887.000–20
A. Trouillet777.900111
D. Eckert Ayensa7710.030421
B. Nsimba136.500110
M. Ilaimaharitra136.900––0
R. M. Alberto J.2–00––0
S. Jasper2–00––0
D. Dierckx1–00––0
Beveren
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Verschueren906.700–22
C. Lokesa906.900111
C. Janssens906.300–13
J. Schenk906.900––0
S. Dewaele906.900–14
V. Olatunji906.2001–2
E. Kaboré856.200210
V. Boone857.200––1
B. Godeau636.600––2
C. Oumar Condé456.900––2
F. Slegers456.500121
L. Jans456.300–10
Y. Gomis456.700––2
S. Keller276.5001–0
C. Brüls96.300––0
J. Thomas Robatsch96.700––0

xG (Highlightly)limited

Standard Liège
PlayerxGxAxGOT
M. Epolo–––
Beveren
PlayerxGxAxGOT
J. Schenk–––

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Beveren4-2-3-1

  1. 1J. Schenk6.9
  1. 21L. Jans (c)6.3
  2. 3V. Boone7.2
  3. 31B. Godeau6.6
  4. 4C. Janssens6.3
  1. 18S. Dewaele6.9
  2. 44C. Oumar Condé6.9
  1. 24A. Verschueren6.7
  2. 9E. Kaboré6.2
  3. 5C. Lokesa6.9
  1. 33V. Olatunji6.2
  1. 10D. Eckert Ayensa10.0
  1. 11A. Abid8.3
  2. 84R. Touzghar7.0
  3. 15S. Drammeh8.3
  1. 22A. Trouillet7.9
  2. 80R. Fosso7.3
  1. 3G. Mortensen6.9
  2. 25I. Hautekiet7.5
  3. 20I. Karamoko7.3
  4. 18H. Lawrence7.3
  1. 1M. Epolo (c)7.7

Standard Liège4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Standard Liège · Bench

Coach: Vincent Euvrard

Beveren · Bench

Coach: Tim Bakens

Key players

Standard Liègeavailable

  1. A. Abid · Midfielder900 min in 10 matches · 3 goals · 2 assists
  2. I. Hautekiet · Defender900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 2 assists
  3. I. Karamoko · Defender855 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Beverenavailable

  1. S. Dewaele · Midfielder892 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. C. Janssens · Defender863 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  3. J. Schenk · Goalkeeper842 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Belgian Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Standard Liège the most probability, 31.9 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Standard Liège · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Standard Liège · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Standard Liège · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (29 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (919 → 918), history from (25 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Standard Liège -1.2, draw -1.8, Beveren +3.0 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 5 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (918 → 919), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 1 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 3–0: Standard Liège. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 55.2%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.594, Brier 0.301 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Standard Liège45.1
Beveren27.6
Standard Liège — 45.195% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, expected or confirmed line-up quality and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 58% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 34% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 34% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 38% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Beveren — 27.695% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 13% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 61% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 67% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 60% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 06 Nov, 19:25 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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