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Persian Gulf Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 12

Shams Azar v Sanat Naft

Shams Azar
0–1FT · HT 0–1
Sanat NaftM. Seifi 35′
Where to watch

· Sardare Azadegan Stadium, Qazvin

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Sardare Azadegan Stadium, Qazvin
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Sanat Naft⁩ win. The model gave it 20.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.419 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.24 – 0.77⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–0⁩ 15.9%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 15.3%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 14.2%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 10.4%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 7.9%

⁦0–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v1 computed 29 Oct, 13:02 UK time, 6 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 28 Oct on 697 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key eventslimited

  1. 13:00Kick-off
  2. 35′Goal · Sanat NaftM. Seifi
  3. 46′Substitution · Shams AzarA. Hosseinzadeh on · A. Nasiri off
  4. 46′Substitution · Shams AzarS. Moazemitabar on · M. Rezaei off
  5. 63′Substitution · Sanat NaftM. Karimzadeh on · M. Fakhreddini off
  6. 69′Substitution · Sanat NaftM. Abbasi on · E. Bocoum off
  7. 76′Substitution · Shams AzarA. Zand on · A. Mohkamkar off
  8. 78′Substitution · Sanat NaftM. Ghobeishavi on · T. Rikani off
  9. 78′Substitution · Sanat NaftS. Mehrabizadeh on · M. Seifi off
  10. 83′Substitution · Shams AzarS. Hardani on · A. Karami off
  11. 83′Substitution · Shams AzarA. A. Chegini on · A. Taher off

Match summary

Written by a language model from the match record, not by a person. Not the founder's analysis, not the statistical forecast, not the community's view.

Shams Azar Qazvin and Sanat Naft faced off at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin, with the match ending in a 1-0 victory for Sanat Naft. The only goal of the game came early in the first half, with M. Seifi scoring for Sanat Naft at the 35th minute. The score remained unchanged for the rest of the match, with Sanat Naft holding on to their lead.

Shams Azar Qazvin entered the match with a mixed run of form, having lost their last two games and drawn the previous two. Their recent results included a 0-2 loss to Esteghlal Khuzestan, a 0-0 draw against Sepahan FC, a 1-1 draw with Paykan, a 2-3 loss to Gol Gohar, and a 0-1 loss to Chadormalu SC. Sanat Naft, on the other hand, had also struggled in their last four matches, losing three and drawing one, but had won their second-to-last game 2-1 against Aluminium Arak.

In their head-to-head history, Sanat Naft had the upper hand, winning two of the three previous encounters. The most recent meeting ended in a 2-2 draw, while the match before that was a 0-0 stalemate. The earliest recorded clash saw Sanat Naft triumph 3-1 over Shams Azar Qazvin. The statistical model forecasted a 45.1% chance of a Shams Azar Qazvin win, a 34.6% chance of a draw, and a 20.3% chance of a Sanat Naft victory.

Model ministral-14b-latest · version 1 · written · Written from timeline, forecast

Statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Shams Azar

Only 10 of the eleven starters are named, so this line-up is a list; an unnamed place is not filled in.

Sanat Naft

No formation supplied, so this line-up is a list.

Shams Azar · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Sanat Naft · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Shams Azarnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Sanat Naftnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Persian Gulf Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Shams Azar the most probability, 10.5 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Shams Azar · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Shams Azar · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Shams Azar · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Sanat Naft. Version 1 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 20.3%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.594, Brier 0.958 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Shams Azar31.6
Sanat Naft23.9
Shams Azar — 31.675% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 23% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 10 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Sanat Naft — 23.975% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 13% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Not available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 13 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 31% of this competition

75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 29 Oct, 13:02 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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