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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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UEFA Conference League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 3

Twente v Pafos

TwenteR. Nijstad 62′ · S. Orjasaeter 76′ · D. Weidmann 82′
3–1FT · HT 0–1
PafosLele 39′
Where to watch

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Michal Očenáš
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Referee: Michal Očenáš
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Twente⁩ win. The model gave it 55.6%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.118 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.76 – 0.96⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦4.33 – 0.91⁩
Goals
⁦3 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.6%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 11.2%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 10.2%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.8%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 7.0%

⁦3–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 05 Nov, 19:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 4 Nov on 20,026 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 34′Yellow card · TwenteR. Nijstad
  3. 39′Goal · PafosLele
  4. 40′Yellow card · PafosLele
  5. 62′Goal · TwenteR. Nijstad · (assist D. Weidmann)
  6. 64′Yellow card · PafosLele
  7. 64′Red card · PafosLele
  8. 69′Substitution · PafosA. Silva on · J. Correia off
  9. 76′Goal · TwenteS. Orjasaeter · (assist Y. Taha)
  10. 77′Substitution · TwenteL. Vennegoor of Hesselink on · D. Rots off
  11. 81′Substitution · TwenteT. van den Belt on · Y. Taha off
  12. 81′Substitution · PafosGuga on · A. Brito off
  13. 81′Substitution · PafosD. Quina on · V. Dragomir off
  14. 82′Goal · TwenteD. Weidmann · (assist T. van den Belt)
  15. 85′Substitution · TwenteJ. Bawuah on · D. Weidmann off
  16. 85′Substitution · TwenteM. Pjaca on · S. Orjasaeter off
  17. 86′Substitution · TwenteM. Rosiak on · A. Adelgaard off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 9Blocked shots0
  • 12Corners1
  • 4.33Expected goals (xG)0.91
  • 13Fouls9
  • 1Offsides2
  • 91%Pass accuracy72%
  • 728Passes231
  • 665Accurate passes167
  • 76%Possession24%
  • 0Red cards1
  • 3Saves11
  • 29Shots6
  • 7Shots off target2
  • 13Shots on target4
  • 1Yellow cards2

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Twente
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. van Rooij907.900–24
J. Drommel906.900–10
R. Zerrouki908.200214
R. Pröpper908.000–14
R. Nijstad907.7101–1
W. Weghorst906.500311
A. Adelgaard867.300123
D. Weidmann858.611410
S. Orjasaeter857.710420
Y. Taha817.001230
D. Rots776.900–20
L. Vennegoor of Hesselink136.5002–2
J. Bawuah96.300––0
M. Pjaca97.200–10
T. van den Belt97.201122
M. Rosiak87.000–10
Pafos
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
Bruno906.200–11
D. Luiz907.500––0
I. Šunjić906.900––1
K. Sema906.300––2
N. Ioannou906.200––1
R. Majecki909.000––0
S. Mmaee907.300–11
A. Brito816.9001–2
V. Dragomir816.700––2
J. Correia696.2001–0
Lele646.610410
A. Silva217.200––0
D. Quina96.700––1
Guga96.300––0

xG (Highlightly)limited

Twente
PlayerxGxAxGOT
W. Weghorst0.980.041.05
R. Nijstad0.580.050.65
D. Weidmann0.570.491.23
T. van den Belt0.390.39–
L. Vennegoor of Hesselink0.310.00–
Y. Taha0.220.420.15
A. Adelgaard0.080.14–
R. Zerrouki0.060.220.12
B. van Rooij–0.64–
D. Rots–0.18–
J. Drommel–0.04–
R. Pröpper–0.40–
Pafos
PlayerxGxAxGOT
Lele0.830.020.78
J. Correia0.06––
A. Brito0.020.000.06
A. Silva–0.00–
Bruno–0.10–
D. Luiz–0.01–
D. Quina–0.00–
I. Šunjić–0.00–
K. Sema–0.00–
N. Ioannou–0.00–
R. Majecki–0.00–
S. Mmaee–0.08–
V. Dragomir–0.16–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Not shown: 1 players Highlightly listed who are not yet matched to ours.

Line-ups available

Pafos4-5-1

  1. 99R. Majecki9.0
  1. 7Bruno6.2
  2. 3S. Mmaee7.3
  3. 4D. Luiz (c)7.5
  4. 14N. Ioannou6.2
  1. 30V. Dragomir6.7
  2. 26I. Šunjić6.9
  3. 50A. Brito6.9
  4. 77J. Correia6.2
  5. 12K. Sema6.3
  1. 18Lele6.6
  1. 9W. Weghorst6.5
  1. 27S. Orjasaeter7.7
  2. 8D. Weidmann8.6
  3. 10Y. Taha7.0
  4. 11D. Rots6.9
  1. 6R. Zerrouki8.2
  1. 29A. Adelgaard7.3
  2. 4R. Nijstad7.7
  3. 3R. Pröpper (c)8.0
  4. 28B. van Rooij7.9
  1. 16J. Drommel6.9

Twente4-1-4-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Twente · Bench

Coach: John van den Brom

Pafos · Bench

Coach: Ricardo Sa Pinto

Key players

Twenteavailable

  1. B. van Rooij · Defender543 min in 6 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  2. R. Zerrouki · Midfielder487 min in 6 matches · 2 goals · 0 assists
  3. R. Pröpper · Defender470 min in 6 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists

From player figures for all 6 matches played.

Pafoslimited

  1. N. Ioannou · Defender300 min in 3 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists
  2. R. Majecki · Goalkeeper300 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  3. V. Dragomir · Midfielder265 min in 3 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists

From player figures for 3 of 4 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Conference League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Twente the most probability, 31.4 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Twente · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Twente · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Twente · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Twente -0.2, draw +0.1, Pafos +0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (28 Oct 2026 → 29 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (20,022 → 20,024), history from (24 Oct 2023 → 25 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Twente +0.1, draw 0.0, Pafos -0.1 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (29 Oct 2026 → 1 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (20,024 → 19,937), history from (25 Oct 2023 → 28 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Twente -0.2, draw +0.1, Pafos +0.1 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (1 Nov 2026 → 4 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (19,937 → 20,026), history from (28 Oct 2023 → 31 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 3–1: Twente. Version 4 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 55.7%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.585, Brier 0.295 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

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Match discussion

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