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UEFA Europa League· 2026/27 · League phase, matchday 2

Lech Poznań v Bayer Leverkusen

Lech Poznań
0–4FT · HT 0–3
Bayer LeverkusenP. Schick 29′, 41′ · M. Tillman 32′ · I. Maza 88′
Where to watch

· Enea Stadion, Poznań

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Milos Milanovic
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Enea Stadion, Poznań
  • Referee: Milos Milanovic
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Bayer Leverkusen⁩ win. The model gave it 69.5%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.056 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.16 – 2.69⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.57 – 5.22⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 4⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.9%
  • ⁦1–3⁩ 8.0%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 7.7%
  • ⁦0–3⁩ 6.9%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 6.9%

⁦0–4⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match · The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Early pre-match ·
  4. v4Early pre-match ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v4 computed 12 Oct, 01:01 UK time, 3 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 11 Oct on 15,579 matches since Oct 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 17:45Kick-off
  2. 15′Substitution · Lech PoznańT. Yegbe on · W. Mońka off
  3. 18′Substitution · Bayer LeverkusenP. Schick on · M. Terrier off
  4. 28′VAR · Bayer Leverkusen · Penalty confirmedI. Maza
  5. 29′Penalty · Bayer LeverkusenP. Schick
  6. 32′Goal · Bayer LeverkusenM. Tillman
  7. 38′VAR · Bayer Leverkusen · Penalty confirmedP. Schick
  8. 40′Yellow card · Lech PoznańM. Skrzypczak
  9. 41′Penalty · Bayer LeverkusenP. Schick
  10. 60′Substitution · Lech PoznańF. Jagiełło on · L. Bengtsson off
  11. 60′Substitution · Lech PoznańY. Agnero on · M. Ishak off
  12. 60′Substitution · Lech PoznańD. Håkans on · P. Wålemark off
  13. 62′Substitution · Bayer LeverkusenM. Diaby on · N. Tella off
  14. 62′Substitution · Bayer LeverkusenR. Andrich on · A. García off
  15. 62′Substitution · Bayer LeverkusenF. Medina on · M. Gutiérrez off
  16. 68′Yellow card · Bayer LeverkusenR. Andrich
  17. 74′Substitution · Lech PoznańP. Rodríguez on · G. Berggren off
  18. 76′Substitution · Bayer LeverkusenA. Moreira on · P. Schick off
  19. 80′Yellow card · Bayer LeverkusenM. Diaby
  20. 88′Goal · Bayer LeverkusenI. Maza · (assist A. Moreira)

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 3Blocked shots4
  • 4Corners5
  • 0.57Expected goals (xG)5.22
  • 5Fouls16
  • 1Offsides4
  • 370Passes584
  • 295Accurate passes534
  • 39%Possession61%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 7Saves3
  • 10Shots22
  • 4Shots off target8
  • 3Shots on target10
  • 1Yellow cards2

Player statisticslimited

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Lech Poznań
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Kozubal906.300101
J. Pereira905.500116
L. Palma906.500210
M. Lis906.600000
M. Skrzypczak905.600000
M. Gurgul905.400102
T. Yegbe756.000000
G. Berggren745.900101
L. Bengtsson605.900010
M. Ishak606.800211
P. Wålemark606.400120
D. Håkans305.800000
F. Jagiełło305.800000
Y. Agnero306.200000
P. Rodríguez165.700102
W. Mońka155.700000
Bayer Leverkusen
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
E. Tapsoba907.300102
E. Fernández907.200011
I. Maza908.210424
L. Badé907.100003
L. Vázquez906.900001
M. Tillman908.210431
M. Flekken907.100000
A. García627.200211
M. Gutiérrez626.700020
N. Tella626.900321
P. Schick588.520320
F. Medina287.500011
M. Diaby286.400010
R. Andrich286.600200
M. Terrier186.500000
A. Moreira146.801310

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-ups available

Bayer Leverkusen4-2-3-1

  1. 1M. Flekken7.1
  1. 17L. Vázquez6.9
  2. 5L. Badé7.1
  3. 12E. Tapsoba7.3
  4. 3M. Gutiérrez6.7
  1. 6E. Fernández7.2
  2. 24A. García7.2
  1. 23N. Tella6.9
  2. 10M. Tillman8.2
  3. 30I. Maza8.2
  1. 11M. Terrier6.5
  1. 77L. Palma6.5
  1. 14L. Bengtsson5.9
  2. 9M. Ishak6.8
  3. 10P. Wålemark6.4
  1. 43A. Kozubal6.3
  2. 5G. Berggren5.9
  1. 15M. Gurgul5.4
  2. 27W. Mońka5.7
  3. 72M. Skrzypczak5.6
  4. 2J. Pereira5.5
  1. 1M. Lis6.6

Lech Poznań4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Lech Poznań · Bench

Coach: N. Frederiksen

Bayer Leverkusen · Bench

Coach: Carles Martínez

Key players

Lech Poznańlimited

  1. L. Palma · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Lis · Goalkeeper90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. M. Gurgul · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for 1 of 5 matches played: the other matches have none, so these totals are a floor.

Bayer Leverkusenavailable

  1. A. García · Midfielder90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. F. Medina · Defender90 min in 1 match · 1 goal · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. E. Tapsoba · Defender90 min in 1 match · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 1 match played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in UEFA Europa League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the most probability, 52.9 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Bayer Leverkusen · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Bayer Leverkusen · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Lech Poznań · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: The model rates clubs within one league; a match between clubs of different leagues waits for its next version.
  2. v2 · Early pre-match: first available version.
    The early pre-match version reported no inputs, so nothing can be attributed.
  3. v3 · Lech Poznań -0.2, draw 0.0, Bayer Leverkusen +0.2 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (8 Oct 2026 → 10 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,135 → 15,091), history from (4 Oct 2023 → 6 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  4. v4 · Lech Poznań -2.7, draw -1.5, Bayer Leverkusen +4.2 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (10 Oct 2026 → 11 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (15,091 → 15,579), history from (6 Oct 2023 → 7 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–4: Bayer Leverkusen. Version 4 (Early pre-match) gave that outcome 69.5%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.363, Brier 0.140 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

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Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.