ModelModel forecast
dixon-coles-elo@0.7.0 · v1dixon-coles-elo@0.7.0 · v1 computed 13 Nov, 12:45 UK time
Persian Gulf Pro League· 2026/27 · Matchweek 13
Persepolis v Paykan
· Azadi Stadium, Tehran
Data checked Details
- Data last checked ; unchanged since
- Kick-off UK time
- Referee: not supplied
- Where to watch
- Kick-off
- Azadi Stadium, Tehran
- Referee: not supplied
- Data last checked ; unchanged since
Your pick
Locks UK time
Tap an outcome. No account is needed to choose; an account is needed to save it.
Saving a pick needs a free account. It counts once you confirm your email address before kick-off, when picks lock.
Your pick counts towards the community picks only; it is never blended with the statistical model or the founder’s analysis.
ModelForecast details
Goals: expected and scored
- Model, before kick-off
- 1.47 – 0.59
Likeliest scores before kick-off
- 1–0 16.6%
- 0–0 14.8%
- 2–0 13.8%
- 1–1 13.1%
- 2–1 8.1%
Every version, never edited
- v1Early pre-match ·
dixon-coles-elo@0.7.0 · v1 computed 13 Nov, 12:45 UK time, 6 days before kick-off · Early pre-match · fitted 12 Nov on 696 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete
Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions
Other predictions of this match
Founder’s analysis
None yet
Founder’s analysis
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.
Community picks
Under 5
Community picks
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.
Approved contributors
None yet
Approved contributors
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.
Three separate products, never blended.
- Statistics · Not supplied in this competition
- Player statistics · Not supplied in this competition
- Expected goals by player · Not supplied in this competition
We do not receive these for this competition, so they will not appear after kick-off either.
Recorded once the match kicks off; nothing is shown before then.
data delayed
- Line-ups · data delayed
Data for this module is delayed.
Not announced yet: clubs usually name the official line-up about an hour before kick-off, and it is shown here as soon as it reaches us.
Recorded once the match kicks off; nothing is shown before then.
Coming, with limited coverage
- Live timeline · Coming, with limited coverage
Limited: our source supplies only part of this in this competition, so some of it can be missing for this match.
data delayed
- Line-ups · data delayed
Data for this module is delayed.
Not supplied in this competition
- Statistics · Not supplied in this competition
- Player statistics · Not supplied in this competition
- Expected goals by player · Not supplied in this competition
We do not receive these for this competition, so they will not appear after kick-off either.
Not announced yet: clubs usually name the official line-up about an hour before kick-off, and it is shown here as soon as it reaches us.
Key players
Persepolisnot supplied
No per-match player figures for this side this season.
Paykannot supplied
No per-match player figures for this side this season.
Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.
Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Persian Gulf Pro League 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.
Statistical model
How the forecast was reachedavailable
The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.
Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.
The model gives Persepolis the most probability, 26.1 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.
Leading factors
- Team strength · favours Persepolis · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
- Attack against defence · favours Persepolis · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
- Home advantage · favours Persepolis · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
Power Index
Persepolis78.1
Paykan43.7
Persepolis — 78.175% measured
Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and rest, travel and schedule.
- Underlying team strength35% of the indexAhead of 88% of this competition
- Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the indexAhead of 57% of this competition
- Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the indexNot available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
- Venue effect10% of the indexAhead of 88% of this competition
- Rest, travel and schedule5% of the indexTop 10% of this competition — 13 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
- Competition context5% of the indexNot available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
- Managerial and team stability5% of the indexAhead of 55% of this competition
75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.
Paykan — 43.775% measured
Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, rest, travel and schedule and venue effect.
- Underlying team strength35% of the indexAhead of 43% of this competition
- Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the indexAhead of 33% of this competition
- Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the indexNot available — fewer than 7 of the line-up have a rating this season
- Venue effect10% of the indexAhead of 38% of this competition
- Rest, travel and schedule5% of the indexTop 10% of this competition — 13 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
- Competition context5% of the indexNot available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
- Managerial and team stability5% of the indexAhead of 53% of this competition — how much of the XI carries over only
75% of the index was measurable. Not included: expected or confirmed line-up quality and competition context.
Formula [email protected], computed 13 Nov, 12:45 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.
Where to watch
Choose your territory to see where this match is shown. It is never guessed from your address.
Match discussion
Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.
Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.