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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 12

Sheffield United v Derby County

Sheffield UnitedP. Bamford 79′
1–1FT · HT 0–1
Derby CountyB. Clark 37′
Where to watch

· Bramall Lane, Sheffield

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Stephen Martin
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Bramall Lane, Sheffield
  • Referee: Stephen Martin
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: a draw. The model gave it 24.3%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.161 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.76 – 1.17⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦2.99 – 1.16⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 11.4%
  • ⁦2–1⁩ 9.7%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 9.0%
  • ⁦2–0⁩ 8.3%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 6.4%

⁦1–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 24 Oct, 12:03 UK time, 26 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 23 Oct on 1,643 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 12:30Kick-off
  2. 17′Yellow card · Derby CountyR. Nyambe
  3. 37′Goal · Derby CountyB. Clark
  4. 50′Yellow card · Derby CountyD. Sanderson
  5. 57′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedF. Seriki on · H. Choudhury off
  6. 57′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedS. Peck on · O. Arblaster off
  7. 64′Yellow card · Sheffield UnitedL. Kitching
  8. 66′Yellow card · Derby CountyD. Sanderson
  9. 66′Red card · Derby CountyD. Sanderson
  10. 67′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedJ. Ayew on · T. Cannon off
  11. 67′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedR. Donovan on · B. Brereton Díaz off
  12. 73′Substitution · Derby CountyJ. Robinson on · S. Szmodics off
  13. 73′Substitution · Derby CountyM. Johnston on · R. Brewster off
  14. 73′Substitution · Derby CountyO. Fraulo on · H. Meister off
  15. 75′Yellow card · Sheffield UnitedS. Peck
  16. 79′Goal · Sheffield UnitedP. Bamford · (assist R. Donovan)
  17. 81′Substitution · Sheffield UnitedT. Campbell on · P. Bamford off
  18. 81′Substitution · Derby CountyL. Salvesen on · J. Ward off
  19. 90+4′Yellow card · Derby CountyB. Clark
  20. 90+5′Substitution · Derby CountyF. Bilbija on · D. Ozoh off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 9Blocked shots2
  • 7Corners7
  • 2.99Expected goals (xG)1.16
  • 8Fouls17
  • 2Offsides4
  • 81%Pass accuracy67%
  • 427Passes263
  • 348Accurate passes177
  • 62%Possession38%
  • 0Red cards1
  • 3Saves10
  • 25Shots11
  • 6Shots off target5
  • 10Shots on target4
  • 2Yellow cards4

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Sheffield United
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
H. Burrows906.600110
J. Tanganga907.300202
K. Phillips907.900115
L. Kitching906.900020
M. Cooper907.700000
T. Chong907.300113
P. Bamford817.210210
B. Brereton Díaz676.300200
T. Cannon676.200110
H. Choudhury577.000002
O. Arblaster576.600223
F. Seriki337.500040
S. Peck336.700300
J. Ayew236.500000
R. Donovan238.201221
T. Campbell96.500210
Derby County
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Clark907.310223
C. Morris907.500111
J. Widell Zetterström907.300000
R. Hedges907.000202
R. Nyambe906.900001
D. Ozoh897.200007
J. Ward816.700021
H. Meister736.300211
R. Brewster736.500000
S. Szmodics737.200231
D. Sanderson666.000000
J. Robinson176.500000
M. Johnston176.500001
O. Fraulo176.300000
L. Salvesen96.300000
F. Bilbija1–00000

xG (Highlightly) available

Sheffield United
PlayerxGxAxGOT
P. Bamford0.880.010.13
T. Campbell0.410.140.06
H. Burrows0.330.050.20
S. Peck0.280.070.12
J. Tanganga0.220.020.19
B. Brereton Díaz0.150.02–
R. Donovan0.150.530.12
T. Chong0.100.170.06
O. Arblaster0.080.02–
T. Cannon0.050.03–
K. Phillips0.020.170.04
F. Seriki–0.08–
H. Choudhury–0.03–
J. Ayew–0.00–
L. Kitching–0.10–
M. Cooper–0.00–
Derby County
PlayerxGxAxGOT
B. Clark0.550.051.25
H. Meister0.390.070.26
R. Hedges0.120.010.04
C. Morris0.050.03–
S. Szmodics0.030.10–
D. Ozoh–0.00–
D. Sanderson–0.00–
J. Robinson–0.03–
J. Widell Zetterström–0.00–
J. Ward–0.10–
L. Salvesen–0.00–
M. Johnston–0.00–
O. Fraulo–0.00–
R. Brewster–0.01–
R. Nyambe–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Derby County4-2-3-1

  1. 1J. Widell Zetterström7.3
  1. 23J. Ward6.7
  2. 24R. Nyambe6.9
  3. 28D. Sanderson6.0
  4. 26R. Hedges7.0
  1. 8B. Clark7.3
  2. 4D. Ozoh7.2
  1. 10R. Brewster6.5
  2. 11S. Szmodics7.2
  3. 19H. Meister6.3
  1. 9C. Morris (c)7.5
  1. 45P. Bamford7.2
  1. 22B. Brereton Díaz6.3
  2. 9T. Cannon6.2
  3. 19T. Chong7.3
  1. 4O. Arblaster6.6
  2. 27K. Phillips7.9
  1. 14H. Burrows6.6
  2. 15L. Kitching6.9
  3. 5J. Tanganga (c)7.3
  4. 8H. Choudhury7.0
  1. 1M. Cooper7.7

Sheffield United4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Sheffield United · Bench

Coach: C. Wilder

Derby County · Bench

Coach: John Eustace

Key players

Sheffield Unitedavailable

  1. J. Tanganga · Defender990 min in 11 matches · 2 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. M. Cooper · Goalkeeper990 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. S. Peck · Midfielder884 min in 11 matches · 1 goal · 2 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

Derby Countyavailable

  1. B. Clark · Midfielder910 min in 11 matches · 2 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. D. Sanderson · Defender855 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. S. Langås · Defender822 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsOut · Injury

From player figures for all 11 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Sheffield United the most probability, 26.2 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Sheffield United · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Sheffield United · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Sheffield United · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (16 Oct 2026 → 17 Oct 2026), history from (12 Oct 2023 → 13 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Sheffield United +5.2, draw -4.1, Derby County -1.1 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (17 Oct 2026 → 23 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,619 → 1,643), history from (13 Oct 2023 → 19 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–1: a draw. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 24.3%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.416, Brier 0.895 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Sheffield United43.0
Derby County29.4
Sheffield United — 43.095% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, underlying team strength and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 62% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 30% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 47% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Derby County — 29.495% measured

Driven mostly by recent opponent-adjusted performance, expected or confirmed line-up quality and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 52% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 32% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 33% of this competition — 6 days since the previous match, 3 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 76% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 24 Oct, 12:03 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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