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Picked from 21 matches by what is happening and what the model expected

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Championship· 2026/27 · Matchweek 14

Bristol City v Wolves

Bristol CityS. Twine 34′
1–2FT · HT 1–0
WolvesS. Neave 82′, 89′
Where to watch

· Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Tom Nield
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
  • Referee: Tom Nield
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Wolves⁩ win. The model gave it 40.9%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.219 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.01 – 1.24⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦1.03 – 2.37⁩
Goals
⁦1 – 2⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 13.7%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 12.6%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 11.0%
  • ⁦1–0⁩ 10.2%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 8.2%

⁦1–2⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 04 Nov, 19:32 UK time, 27 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 3 Nov on 1,633 matches since Oct 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:00Kick-off
  2. 34′Goal · Bristol CityS. Twine
  3. 63′Yellow card · Bristol CityC. Pring
  4. 65′Yellow card · WolvesJ. Bellegarde
  5. 82′Goal · WolvesS. Neave
  6. 88′Yellow card · Bristol CityL. McNally
  7. 89′Goal · WolvesS. Neave · (assist L. Krejčí)
Substitutions (9)
  1. 55′Substitution · WolvesR. Gomes on · M. Munetsi off
  2. 58′Substitution · Bristol CityY. Hirakawa on · S. Bell off
  3. 67′Substitution · Bristol CityJ. Wallace on · R. Cardines off
  4. 67′Substitution · Bristol CityD. Ballard on · S. Twine off
  5. 73′Substitution · WolvesM. Mané on · R. Saïd off
  6. 73′Substitution · WolvesS. Neave on · F. López off
  7. 73′Substitution · WolvesT. Doyle on · J. Bellegarde off
  8. 85′Substitution · WolvesT. Chirewa on · A. Armstrong off
  9. 85′Substitution · Bristol CityA. Randell on · J. Williams off

Match summary

No written summary for this match

Statistics available

Match

  • 38%Possession62%
  • 1.03Expected goals (xG)2.37

Attack

  • 5Shots17
  • 3Shots on target8
  • 2Shots off target7
  • 0Blocked shots2
  • 2Corners5
  • 2Offsides0
  • 5Saves1

Passing

  • 338Passes552
  • 247Accurate passes469

Discipline

  • 8Fouls9
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Bristol City
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
B. Collins906.700000
C. Pring905.900005
G. Tanner907.000105
J. Knight906.400001
L. Naif Eissat906.100002
L. Tolaj906.100100
L. McNally905.700000
J. Williams856.100013
R. Cardines675.900023
S. Twine677.510203
S. Bell586.200000
Y. Hirakawa325.500000
D. Ballard236.400100
J. Wallace236.000001
A. Randell55.600000
Wolves
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
André907.000104
H. Bueno906.500012
J. Sá906.800000
K. Trippier906.900031
L. Krejčí907.601222
Y. Mosquera907.500014
A. Armstrong856.100301
F. López736.200110
J. Bellegarde736.300031
R. Saïd736.400520
M. Munetsi556.400102
R. Gomes356.000111
M. Mané176.700000
S. Neave179.420300
T. Doyle176.300000
T. Chirewa56.500000

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Expected goals by player available

Licensed match data, from a source of its own: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Bristol City
PlayerxGxAxGOT
L. Tolaj0.510.01–
S. Twine0.080.010.68
D. Ballard0.070.010.46
G. Tanner0.020.01–
A. Randell–0.01–
B. Collins–0.00–
C. Pring–0.02–
J. Knight–0.02–
J. Wallace–0.00–
J. Williams–0.06–
L. Naif Eissat–0.00–
L. McNally–0.00–
R. Cardines–0.25–
S. Bell–0.00–
Y. Hirakawa–0.01–
Wolves
PlayerxGxAxGOT
S. Neave1.600.001.99
A. Armstrong0.200.010.54
R. Saïd0.170.040.02
R. Gomes0.110.04–
L. Krejčí0.080.160.47
F. López0.030.03–
André0.020.02–
M. Munetsi0.020.02–
H. Bueno–0.03–
J. Bellegarde–0.10–
J. Sá–0.00–
K. Trippier–0.30–
M. Mané–0.00–
T. Chirewa–0.00–
T. Doyle–0.01–
Y. Mosquera–0.02–

– no figure supplied for this player; a 0 is a supplied zero.

Line-ups available

Wolves4-2-3-1

  1. 1Sá6.8
  1. 2Trippier6.9
  2. 15Mosquera7.5
  3. 37Krejčí7.6
  4. 3Bueno6.5
  1. 7André7.0
  2. 5MunetsiOff 55′6.4
  1. 28LópezOff 73′6.2
  2. 27BellegardeBooked 65′ · Off 73′6.3
  3. 19SaïdOff 73′6.4
  1. 10ArmstrongOff 85′6.1
  1. 9Tolaj6.1
  1. 10TwineGoal 34′ · Off 67′7.5
  2. 11BellOff 58′6.2
  3. 21CardinesOff 67′5.9
  1. 8WilliamsOff 85′6.1
  2. 12Knight6.4
  1. 3PringBooked 63′5.9
  2. 2Naif Eissat6.1
  3. 15McNallyBooked 88′5.7
  4. 19Tanner7.0
  1. 40Collins6.7

Bristol City4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Bristol City · Bench

Coach: M. Skubala

Wolves · Bench

Coach: Cesar Peixoto

Key players

Bristol Cityavailable

  1. J. Knight · Midfielder1,140 min in 13 matches · 1 goal · 1 assistNot on the absence list
  2. R. Cardines · Midfielder992 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 6 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. S. Tickle · Goalkeeper990 min in 11 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 13 matches played.

Wolvesavailable

  1. André · Midfielder1,102 min in 13 matches · 0 goals · 2 assistsNot on the absence list
  2. J. Sá · Goalkeeper1,080 min in 12 matches · 0 goals · 0 assistsNot on the absence list
  3. H. Bueno · Defender982 min in 12 matches · 0 goals · 1 assistNot on the absence list

From player figures for all 13 matches played.

Availability as last checked, .

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Championship 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Wolves the most probability, 11.1 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Wolves · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Wolves · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Bristol City · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (27 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026), matches in the fit (1,645 → 1,633), history from (23 Oct 2023 → 27 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Bristol City +0.7, draw +3.1, Wolves -3.8 points (confirmed line-ups).
    2 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 3 Nov 2026), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 30 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 1–2: Wolves. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 40.8%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.895, Brier 0.525 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Bristol City24.7
Wolves71.7
Bristol City — 24.795% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, recent opponent-adjusted performance and expected or confirmed line-up quality.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 22% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 18% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 26% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Wolves — 71.795% measured

Driven mostly by expected or confirmed line-up quality, underlying team strength and venue effect.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 75% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 55% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 77% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 40% of this competition — 4 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 41% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 04 Nov, 19:32 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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