Skip to content

Moments that matter

0 live

Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

Leagues
2 more1 more
← ScoresTimes: UK time

FA Cup· 2026/27

Leyton Orient v Harborough Town

Leyton OrientA. Dobra 6′ · A. Connolly 25′ · I. El Mizouni 49′ · T. Springett 79′
5–1FT · HT 2–0
Harborough TownP. Malone 69′
Where to watch

· Brisbane Road, London

Data checked Details
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Brisbane Road, London
  • Referee: not supplied
  • Data last checked ; unchanged since

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Leyton Orient⁩ win. The model gave it 24.7%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.410 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦1.09 – 1.66⁩
Chances created (match xG)
not supplied
Goals
⁦5 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦1–1⁩ 12.0%
  • ⁦0–1⁩ 10.2%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.6%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 8.8%
  • ⁦0–0⁩ 6.8%

⁦5–1⁩ was not among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v2 computed 07 Nov, 14:33 UK time, 26 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 6 Nov on 20,109 matches since Nov 2023 · no Elo prior · inputs limited

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key eventslimited

  1. 15:00Kick-off
  2. 6′Goal · Leyton OrientA. Dobra · (assist F. Stevens)
  3. 25′Goal · Leyton OrientA. Connolly · (assist A. Gilbert)
  4. 49′Goal · Leyton OrientI. El Mizouni · (assist S. Boniface)
  5. 64′Substitution · Leyton OrientJ. Olowu on · R. Edmonds-Green off
  6. 65′Substitution · Leyton OrientD. Scarlett on · J. Kabia off
  7. 69′Goal · Harborough TownP. Malone · (assist E. Putman)
  8. 73′Substitution · Harborough TownC. Powell on · M. Jacobs off
  9. 76′Substitution · Leyton OrientT. Springett on · A. Connolly off
  10. 76′Yellow card · Leyton OrientA. Dobra
  11. 77′Substitution · Leyton OrientP. Chinedu on · S. Boniface off
  12. 79′Yellow card · Leyton OrientA. Gilchrist
  13. 79′Goal · Leyton OrientT. Springett
  14. 84′Substitution · Leyton OrientY. Akhamrich on · A. Dobra off
  15. 87′Yellow card · Harborough TownP. Malone

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statisticslimited

  • 3Blocked shots2
  • 4Corners8
  • 7Fouls7
  • 3Offsides2
  • 40%Possession60%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 4Saves5
  • 19Shots7
  • 7Shots off target0
  • 9Shots on target5
  • 2Yellow cards4

Expected goals (xG): not available for this match.not supplied

Player statisticsnot supplied

Not supplied for this match.

xG (Highlightly)not supplied

Not supplied for this match.

Line-upslimited

  1. 9J. Kabia
  1. 17A. Dobra
  2. 25C. Wellens
  3. 10A. Connolly
  1. 8I. El Mizouni
  2. 20A. Gilbert
  1. 19S. Boniface
  2. 12A. Gilchrist
  3. 4R. Edmonds-Green
  4. 2F. Stevens
  1. 1N. Baxter

Leyton Orient4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Harborough Town4-2-3-1

Only 5 of the eleven starters are named, so this line-up is a list; an unnamed place is not filled in.

Leyton Orient · Bench

Coach: R. Wellens

Harborough Town · Bench

Coach: not supplied

Key players

Leyton Orientavailable

No match of this competition played before this one, so no minutes to count yet.

Harborough Townnot supplied

No per-match player figures for this side this season.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in FA Cup 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedlimited

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Harborough Town the most probability, 25.0 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Harborough Town · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results
  • Attack against defence · favours Harborough Town · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Leyton Orient · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window
  • No Elo prior this time: the long-term ratings were not available when this version was computed, so team strength rests on results alone.

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · No change in probabilities (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (30 Oct 2026 → 6 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (19,998 → 20,109), history from (26 Oct 2023 → 2 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 5–1: Leyton Orient. Version 2 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 24.7%, not its most probable outcome. Log loss 1.400, Brier 0.883 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are worse than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

no Power Index has been computed for this match yet

Where to watch

Choose your territory to see where this match is shown. It is never guessed from your address.

Match discussion

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.

Nobody has opened a discussion on this match.