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Picked from 1 match by what is happening and what the model expected

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Primeira Liga· 2026/27 · Matchweek 11

Rio Ave v Braga

Rio Ave
0–1FT · HT 0–0
BragaR. Horta 67′
Where to watch

· Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

Data checked Details
  • Last data update
  • Kick-off UK time
  • Referee: Claudio Pereira
  • Where to watch
  • Kick-off
  • Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde
  • Referee: Claudio Pereira
  • Last data update

ModelWhat was forecast, what happened

Pre-match forecast, frozen at kick-off. It does not update during the match.

Result: ⁨Braga⁩ win. The model gave it 58.2%. Ranked probability score for this match 0.106 (0 is perfect). One match says little: the model's record

Goals: expected and scored

Model, before kick-off
⁦0.97 – 1.85⁩
Chances created (match xG)
⁦0.26 – 1.91⁩
Goals
⁦0 – 1⁩

Likeliest scores before kick-off

  • ⁦0–1⁩ 11.2%
  • ⁦1–1⁩ 10.5%
  • ⁦0–2⁩ 10.2%
  • ⁦1–2⁩ 9.9%
  • ⁦0–3⁩ 6.3%

⁦0–1⁩ was among them.

Every version, never edited

  1. v1Early pre-match ·
  2. v2Early pre-match ·
  3. v3Confirmed line-ups ·

dixon-coles-elo@0.6.0 · v3 computed 08 Nov, 20:00 UK time, 29 min before kick-off · Confirmed line-ups · fitted 7 Nov on 926 matches since Nov 2023 · Elo prior on · inputs complete

Why these numbers: leading factors and what changed between versions

Your pick

Locked at kick-off

Picks lock at kick-off.

Other predictions of this match

Founder’s analysis

None yet
The founder has not written an analysis of this match.

Community picks

Under 5
Fewer than 5 members have predicted this match, so there is no consensus to show yet.

Approved contributors

None yet
No contributor has published an analysis of this match.

Three separate products, never blended.

Key events available

  1. 20:30Kick-off
  2. 45+1′Yellow card · BragaV. Carvalho
  3. 53′Yellow card · Rio AveD. Nascimento
  4. 60′Substitution · BragaV. Gómez on · B. Arrey-Mbi off
  5. 60′Substitution · BragaM. Dorgeles on · G. Martínez off
  6. 64′VAR · Braga · Penalty confirmedG. Lagerbielke
  7. 67′Yellow card · Rio AveD. Bezerra
  8. 67′Penalty · BragaR. Horta
  9. 69′Substitution · Rio AveF. Petrasso on · J. Lomboto off
  10. 69′Substitution · Rio AveB. Aguilera on · S. Clemmensen off
  11. 77′Substitution · Rio AveT. Monteiro on · M. Patricio off
  12. 79′Yellow card · BragaF. Navarro
  13. 81′Substitution · BragaV. Carvalho on · Gorby off
  14. 81′Substitution · BragaD. Huseinbašić on · R. Horta off
  15. 90+4′Substitution · BragaJ. Milošević on · F. Navarro off

Match summary

No summary is shown: the last draft did not agree with the match record, so it was held back.

Statistics available

  • 0Blocked shots3
  • 0Corners8
  • 0.26Expected goals (xG)1.91
  • 12Fouls22
  • 2Offsides3
  • 452Passes384
  • 363Accurate passes297
  • 53%Possession47%
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Saves3
  • 4Shots13
  • 1Shots off target8
  • 3Shots on target2
  • 2Yellow cards1

Player statistics available

Scroll sideways to see every column.

Rio Ave
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
D. Bezerra906.100200
D. Nascimento906.500010
E. Van Der Gouw906.100000
G. Liavas906.300002
G. Mancha906.800001
J. Blesa906.400100
M. Vrousai906.400003
M. Patricio776.700110
J. Tome696.900002
J. Lomboto696.600000
S. Clemmensen696.400011
B. Aguilera216.200000
F. Petrasso215.800000
R. Guilherme136.000000
T. Monteiro136.200000
Braga
PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsKey passesTackles
A. Barišić906.800002
Bernardo906.600000
G. Lagerbielke906.700210
J. Moutinho906.900131
P. Victor906.600305
Travassos906.200101
F. Navarro896.200210
Gorby816.900011
R. Horta816.810201
B. Arrey-Mbi606.400000
G. Martínez606.700012
M. Dorgeles307.100021
V. Gómez307.000101
D. Huseinbašić96.500100
V. Carvalho96.300000
J. Milošević16.500000

xG (Highlightly) available

Rio Ave
PlayerxGxAxGOT
D. Bezerra0.070.010.03
M. Patricio0.060.040.02
J. Blesa0.050.040.15
B. Aguilera–0.02–
D. Nascimento–0.02–
E. Van Der Gouw–0.00–
F. Petrasso–0.00–
G. Liavas–0.01–
G. Mancha–0.00–
J. Tome–0.00–
J. Lomboto–0.00–
M. Vrousai–0.01–
R. Guilherme–0.01–
S. Clemmensen–0.01–
T. Monteiro–0.00–
Braga
PlayerxGxAxGOT
R. Horta1.100.040.78
G. Lagerbielke0.240.00–
P. Victor0.200.000.26
F. Navarro0.120.01–
D. Huseinbašić0.070.00–
V. Gómez0.060.00–
J. Moutinho0.030.14–
Travassos0.020.01–
A. Barišić–0.00–
Bernardo–0.00–
B. Arrey-Mbi–0.00–
G. Martínez–0.03–
Gorby–0.12–
J. Milošević–0.00–
M. Dorgeles–0.19–
V. Carvalho–0.00–

Expected goals from Highlightly's own model: kept apart from the player statistics above and never combined with them.

Line-ups available

Braga3-4-3

  1. 31Bernardo6.6
  1. 37A. Barišić6.8
  2. 14G. Lagerbielke6.7
  3. 26B. Arrey-Mbi6.4
  1. 7Travassos6.2
  2. 8J. Moutinho6.9
  3. 29Gorby6.9
  4. 77G. Martínez6.7
  1. 10P. Victor6.6
  2. 9F. Navarro6.2
  3. 21R. Horta6.8
  1. 11J. Blesa6.4
  1. 7D. Bezerra6.1
  2. 79M. Patricio6.7
  3. 80S. Clemmensen6.4
  1. 54G. Liavas6.3
  2. 90D. Nascimento6.5
  1. 17M. Vrousai6.4
  2. 39G. Mancha6.8
  3. 13J. Lomboto6.6
  4. 20J. Tome6.9
  1. 99E. Van Der Gouw6.1

Rio Ave4-2-3-1

Each player stands where the line-up places him: in his line from the goalkeeper, and on his side of the pitch as his team attacks.

Rio Ave · Bench

Coach: Vasco Seabra

Braga · Bench

Coach: Franclim Carvalho

Key players

Rio Aveavailable

  1. J. Blesa · Forward876 min in 10 matches · 3 goals · 1 assist
  2. D. Bezerra · Midfielder802 min in 10 matches · 1 goal · 3 assists
  3. F. Petrasso · Defender733 min in 9 matches · 1 goal · 0 assists

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Bragaavailable

  1. Bernardo · Goalkeeper900 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 0 assists
  2. V. Gómez · Defender810 min in 10 matches · 0 goals · 1 assist
  3. P. Victor · Forward704 min in 10 matches · 5 goals · 1 assist

From player figures for all 10 matches played.

Availability: absences are not recorded for this competition, so none is claimed.

Key players are each side's 3 with the most minutes in Primeira Liga 2026/27 before this match, counted from each match's player figures; a tie on minutes goes to more goals plus assists, then the name. Goals and assists are summed from the same figures. This is a count, not a judgement of quality, and no rating is used.

Statistical model

How the forecast was reachedavailable

The forecast and every version are in the summary; this section only says why.

Computed by Stadiomind’s statistical model from match data. Not a person’s opinion.

The model gives Braga the most probability, 36.1 points ahead of the next outcome. Every outcome remains possible; these are probabilities, not a prediction of the result.

Leading factors

  • Team strength · favours Braga · net strength (attack minus defence) from recent results and the Elo prior
  • Attack against defence · favours Braga · how the sides' attacks match up against the opposing defences
  • Home advantage · favours Rio Ave · league-wide home advantage learned from the training window

What changed between versions

  1. v1 · Early pre-match: first available version.
  2. v2 · Rio Ave -0.6, draw -0.3, Braga +0.9 points (early pre-match).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (31 Oct 2026 → 1 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (917 → 922), history from (27 Oct 2023 → 28 Oct 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them.
  3. v3 · Rio Ave -0.4, draw +0.2, Braga +0.2 points (confirmed line-ups).
    3 inputs changed together — history up to (1 Nov 2026 → 7 Nov 2026), matches in the fit (922 → 926), history from (28 Oct 2023 → 3 Nov 2023) — so the move cannot be put down to any one of them. The model does not read line-ups yet, so this version is one computed when the line-up was confirmed, not one computed from it.

Post-match evaluation

Result 0–1: Braga. Version 3 (Confirmed line-ups) gave that outcome 58.3%, its most probable outcome. Log loss 0.540, Brier 0.262 (lower is better; knowing nothing scores 1.099 and 0.667).

Both numbers measure how much probability the model put on what really happened. Here both are better than knowing nothing.

Evaluated

How accurate has the model been?

Power Index

Rio Ave22.9
Braga59.8
Rio Ave — 22.995% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, expected or confirmed line-up quality and recent opponent-adjusted performance.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 23% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 13% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 12% of this competition — the announced starting XI, by its players’ ratings this season
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 23% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Top 10% of this competition — 7 days since the previous match, 1 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Ahead of 35% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Braga — 59.895% measured

Driven mostly by underlying team strength, venue effect and managerial and team stability.

  • Underlying team strength35% of the index
    Ahead of 83% of this competition
  • Recent opponent-adjusted performance20% of the index
    Ahead of 48% of this competition
  • Expected or confirmed line-up quality20% of the index
    Ahead of 47% of this competition
  • Venue effect10% of the index
    Ahead of 78% of this competition
  • Rest, travel and schedule5% of the index
    Ahead of 20% of this competition — 3 days since the previous match, 2 in the last 14; travel not modelled
  • Competition context5% of the index
    Not available — not modelled: needs the stakes of this stage and the team’s other commitments
  • Managerial and team stability5% of the index
    Bottom 10% of this competition

95% of the index was measurable. Not included: competition context.

Formula [email protected], computed 08 Nov, 20:00 UK time. 0–100 is this team’s standing in its competition, not a probability.

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Match discussion

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